Archive for the ‘Science’ Category

It’s Not Between Science And God

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

While I was somewhat moved to post this by this article at the Chronicle of Higher Education, it’s really a point I keep making, and keep having to make. Reading the article, and the comments, it seems that the default consensus is that one must pick between a materialistic view of the universe, where even if there is much that is unknown, there is nothing which is inherently unknowable[1], nothing “beyond” understanding, just beyond our present knowledge, and the JudeoChristianIslamic God.

This is bollocks.

The choice is, basically, between science, and every god, demon, spirit, entity, manifestation, or idea ever imagined and yet to be imagined. Pretending as if Zeus, Odin, Kali, Osiris, Xenu, the Angel Moroni, and the Flying Spaghetti Monster have already been eliminated from the running oversimplifies the issue and more or less hands victory to the Believers. However, once you reject the idea that the universe can be understood through science, you reject the scientific method and all it entails and implies. You reject not just some specific theories or knowledge, but the entirety of our way of knowing. You are left with nothing but the subjective, the personal experience, the whim. You are left with no means of distinguishing between Christianity, Mormonism, and Scientology in terms of which one is “true”, because any methods you devise will, ultimately, rely on some variant of the scientific method (or on bloody violence, purges, and the burning of heretics). If you accept, for example, archaeology as a means of proving that the pre-Columbian civilizations described in “The Book of Mormon” did not exist, you are accepting the supremacy of science as a means of determining truth — and if you accept that, you must accept that there are no truths “beyond” science. (Though, again, I wish to emphasize this doesn’t mean all the answers are known, just that there is no way we will ever know the answers if we abandon science.)

Absent science, and the scientific way of thinking, there is no means of convincing a neutral party that your god is more ‘real’ than someone else’s. How, for example, can you prove an E-Meter is bunk if you reject the scientific model of the universe? That is, if you say, “This a magic machine that reads emotions!”, I could, in a scientific frame of mind, say, “OK. If this is true, then we can set up tests. We can take people who have been proven to have certain mental illnesses, and others who do not, but are pretending to, and we will see if you can figure out who is who consistently over many tests. Then we can take the E-Meters and make 10 give basically random readings and 10 work as designed, and see if the accuracy goes up or down as expected. Then…”. However, this requires first accepting the primacy of science, the idea we live in a knowable universe that does not allow for supernatural intervention. Otherwise, any failure can be ascribed to any cause one can imagine — the agents of Xenu, “negative vibes”, or anything else, and this cannot in turn be tested for and eliminated as a factor.

It’s been said, quite often, that the difference between an atheist and a believer is “one less god”. Any truly honest believer who applies the same filter to his or her own god that they do to all the others would be compelled to become an atheist. Any believer who attempts to prove their god is the right one via the tools of science is asserting that science is how we understand the universe and that this understanding does not permit, by definition, the supernatural. Any believer who simply asserts their god is the “right” one and offers no evidence beyond their subjective experiences or other arguments by assertion (“So many people believe in my god, they can’t all be wrong!” or “If my god wasn’t real, the world would be horrible!” or, my personal favorite, “If my god isn’t real, then there can’t be any morality!”)has no means of convicing anyone, so they are ultimately left with coercion — faith at the point of a sword.

(Any time you see the word “god”, in the above, please interpret it as reading “god, gods, goddesses, godlings, demons, spirits, body thetans, fay folk, and every other such thing”. This isn’t about Yahweh. This is about choosing between a universe that can be known and a universe that can’t, and that’s the only choice there is. Once you’ve chosen to believe in an unknowable universe, you have chosen to abandon the only tool which can tell you what should be believed.)

[1]“Inherently” is a key word. There may be things we will never know, because no method will ever be found to know them. This does not mean they are inherently unknowable. Consider, as one of a trillion possible examples, a man marooned in 1756 (a randomly picked year) on an island somewhere in the Pacific, who dies there, alone. What were his final words? Barring some fairly spectacular changes in our understanding of the universe and how it can be manipulated, I am happy to say “No one can know the answer to that.” It would be rather ridiculous to say “Since there exists this unknown thing, this proves there’s a God”, but just about every “God of the gaps” argument, which is what virtually all modern “proofs” of the existence of some god boil down to, is precisely this.  There is nothing inherent in the nature of “a man’s final words” that makes them unknowable and beyond science, even if it is not possible for anyone to know this hypothetical man’s last lonely utterance. I cannot tell you with absolute certainty why there is a universe at all. I can offer some speculations and ideas. I, or at least some alternate me who is a competent physicist, could probably devise experiments to test at least some of them. It may be that this is a fairly simple question when all is said and done and we’ll soon be making universes as High School lab projects. It may be that it is a question whose answer cannot be found. Even in the latter case, though, there’s absolutely no reason to leap from there to god… no reason to say, “Since we don’t know why or how the universe exists, this proves the existence of some other entity I just made up.” The universe does exist; this is a fact. (Descartes notwithstanding). Making up some cause of the universe which cannot, itself, be proven to exist does not work. It answers no questions. It provides no knowledge. It tells us nothing about how we should live our lives, what values we should hold, what is good or evil, or how to increase crop yields or overclock our graphics cards. “Some entity outside reality made reality” is a non-answer. If this non-answer gives you emotional comfort, it’s only because you’re not thinking about it very hard. (It also, inevitably, instantly leads to “Who made that entity?”, which means it’s either turtles all the way down, or we leap forward to “If a universe-creating entity can spontaneously exist, so can a universe, rendering the entity unnecessary.”)

Bell Curves Are Not Miracles

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

So, we have a tragic air crash in Libya. And while you read this brief blog entry, far more people than died in that are going to be dying all around the world, we just won’t be hearing about it on the news. And, no, this isn’t some kind of “Every life is precious and sacred and when someone dies we are all diminished, blah, blah, blah” piece of glurge. Our brains cannot comprehend the number of deaths (and every other tragedy — rape, mutilation, torture, starvation, disease) which occur around us daily, and I don’t mean that as poetic metaphor, but as scientific fact — they can’t. We are only capable of perceiving around 100 or so other people as “real humans”. Google “Dunbar’s Number”, or, even better, “Monkeysphere” to read more. However, that’s not the point of this post.

Rather, I want to focus on what I am sure is about to happen — a whole nauseating tidal wave of posts, essays, and email describing one person’s survival as a “miracle” and showing this proves the grace, compassion, love, etc ad very nauseum of God, or whatever entity or entities the writer happens to believe run the universe.

Simply put: No.

A “miracle” would be the shattered remnants of the plane lifting themselves into the air, knitting themselves together into a whole plane, and being safely redeposited on the ground with everyone alive, healthy, cured of whatever unknown diseases they may have had festering inside of them, while a choir of angels appeared and made statements to the press. (And I’d still reserve judgment until Penn&Teller had had a chance to look over the scene)

An improbable event is not a miracle. It’s just… improbable, and to a large extent, every event of our lives is improbable. Given the huge array of choices, decisions, and possibilities, what are the odds of you getting the precise box of cereal you just bought at the grocery store? Consider the other customers coming and going, the speed at which you walked to the store, your decision to go shopping today instead of tomorrow or yesterday, your decision to go down Aisle 3 first instead of Aisle 2, the fact you spotted a coupon for Raisin Bran this morning and chose to buy it instead of the generic store brand, and on and on… it’s ludicrously unlikely. A million different things had to happen in just the right order for that particular box to end up in your hand, and not the box which was in front of it, or the box behind it, or the box that the clerk is bringing to restock, or… you get the idea.

The odds of any given lottery number coming up are one in 40 million, but twice a week, a one in forty million event happens in my state.

Out of hundreds of plane crashes, occuring under hugely varying circumstances with extremely chaotic conditions, sooner or later, there will be an improbable survivor. That’s all this is — the far end of the bell curve, no more a miracle than someone dying from an extremely trivial accident that normally would result in nothing more than a slight bruise is a miracle. This is a sign of nothing, this teaches us nothing, this demonstrates nothing — except, perhaps, that far too many people do not understand physics, probability, or that the only meaning to be found in life is the meaning you choose to impose upon it.

Hah! Bite Me, Vegans!

Saturday, February 13th, 2010

Oh, sure, it’s just one study, and, yeah, if you have a tenth of a brain, it’s obvious that comparing the most processed types of plant food to meat isn’t really a decent comparison — it’s a poor study and easily rebuked by even the dimmest sprout-munching hippie. But I don’t care, I’m enjoying my moment of schadenfreude.

But, here’s the thing. People, at least sane, normal, people, don’t want to just eat lettuce they grow in their backyard. We are omnivores by evolution, and that means we want, and crave, meat! Even if for ethical or health reasons (correctly or incorrectly), we choose to let our forebrain overrule that primal desire to sink our teeth into a haunch of something that used to be running around, we will crave something close — fake meat, in other words, or highly processed vegetable matter. So as a matter of practicality, a major shift by the population to a vegetarian, or mostly vegetarian, diet can only occur if the craving for flesh can be sated by fake flesh — and that imposes environmental costs, as does everything.

(I actually like tofu, which is my deep and secret shame.)

Google To Pull Out Of China?

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

If they go through with this — if it’s not just empty corporate posturing amounting to nothing in the long run — it’s big. Really big.

Some More Of God’s Greatest Mistakes

Tuesday, January 5th, 2010

Pursuant to prior post, here’s a list of just some examples of proof that, if the universe was designed, the Designer was incompetent, overworked, or both.

Where God Went Wrong

Yeah, So, About That Global Warming…

Tuesday, January 5th, 2010

Sort of says it all…

Yeah, yeah, I know the drill. “Global Warming doesn’t mean warming. It can also mean cooling!”

You know what they call a “theory” that’s “proven” by pointing to any result from an experiment, not just the predicted result?

Not a valid theory.

(See:”Intelligent Design”)

In other words if you say (using the above example) that well-adapted features of life point to design, someone who understands science will say, “OK, then. If life is intelligently designed, we will not find poorly adapted features, which would be indicators of natural selection making do with whatever random crap mutation throws at it.” And, of course, we find endless reams of poorly “designed” aspects of life.However, ID advocates will shove these aside, claiming “Well, we don’t know what the Designer considers well-designed” or “Maybe these are well-designed, we just don’t know how.” (Amusingly, any gaps in the exact history of evolution are jumped on as “proof” of Divine Intervention.)

Likewise, when just about any weather (Too hot? Too cold? Too wet? Too dry? Too windy? Too calm?) is cited as “proof” of the predictions of global warming, the theory fails in the thing which defines a theory — being able to make useful predictions. “There’s going to be weather. Some of it will suck. But even the weather which doesn’t suck counts as proof.” is not a useful prediction.

(This has a lot in common with anti-trust laws, which criminalize charging more than your competitor (that’s gouging), charging less than your competitor (that’s dumping), and charging the same amount as your competitor (that’s collusion))

Is there some evidence average global temperatures are rising? Yes, it does seem so. Are the mechanisms behind this understood well enough to basically change all of human civilization and pretty much kill off a good ninety percent of the population? (Mostly poor foreigners, though, so we don’t have to worry much about that.) Haven’t convinced me yet.

Why kill off so many? Well, I admit it’s a number I mostly made up, but to truly create a “sustainable” world, if anthropocentric global warming is correct, we need to reduce our CO2 output to below the levels of the start of the Industrial Revolution — because we need to not only get back to the level that the environment can process over time, we need to produce less than that so that the excess can be absorbed.

Imagine you’ve got a pump that can clear one gallon of water a minute, and ten gallons of water a minute are flooding in. If you manage, after ten minutes, to get the flood down to one gallon a minute, you won’t get any deeper, but you’re still flooded. You need to have the incoming water be less than the pump’s capacity in order to start reducing the existing flood. In the case of CO2, if the “theory” is to be believed, the warming process began in the 19th century — which means we need to produce less CO2 than that, a lot less, to reduce atmospheric CO2 to “natural” levels in a reasonable timeframe. (Or find better carbon sinks).

So how does this lead to genocide? Well, first, you can’t support seven billion people on 18th century technology. Period. Second, we won’t go back to 18th century technology. We will stick to 21st century technology — for a very few people. The rich and powerful will not become Amish. If the choice is, say, one billion people living sustainably at 18th century levels, or fifty million people living sustainably at 21st century levels, I know which would be picked by those with the power to make the decisions.

If anthropogenic global warming is true, my advice to you is: Be one of the 50 million.

The Myth Of The Triumph Of The Primitives

Monday, December 28th, 2009

Avatar” is the latest in a long series of movies (and other fictional accounts) which play with the trope that “A large number of committed, low-tech native people (usually ‘of color’, be it red, yellow, or blue) can obliterate a high tech army composed of White European Males, which may include White European Males who are of African or Asian descent and female gender.” Very often, people point to “historical” incidents, such as Native Americans vs. Custer, or North Vietnam vs. A Bunch Of American Ethnic Stereotypes Led By Some Prick Second Looie Just Out Of West Point. Recently, the difficulties faced by the Evil Empire (USSR or USA, take your pick) in Afghanistan will be mentioned. A few will remember history began before 1800 and find some “Barbarians vs. Romans” example. All of these “historical examples” are supposed to let us believe that teddy bears or smurfs can take down a massive industrial army, usually in a single, dramatic, conflict lasting ten minutes on the screen and no more than an hour or two in “story time”.

But it’s all bullshit.

First, let’s look at tech differences. In the fiction, the conflict is usually paleolithic technology vs. technology far beyond present-day Earth. In reality, the technology is usually a lot closer — the difference between a bow and a single-shot rifle really isn’t that great. The Indians and the Cavalry both rode horses — one side didn’t have jeeps, never mind tanks or helicopters. Further, the Indians often had rifles they’d acquired via trade. Vietnam? They used primitive traps — and modern guns, mortars, mines, and explosives. Romans? Again, while Roman technology may have been better, it wasn’t THAT much better, especially against superior numbers.

You can’t compare “Bow vs. Flintlock” to “Bow vs. hyper-tech machine gun”. Nor can you compare “bronze axe vs. iron armor” to “bronze axe vs. layered composite armor designed to take a hit from a missile”. (And let’s not forget when there was a more meaningful tech difference — cannon and metal armor and horses vs obsidian and no metal and no horses, aka, Cortez vs. the Aztec Empire, a force of 1500 men or so conquered a continent. Now imagine those same Aztecs against modern mechanized military. Now imagine those same Aztecs against what the mechanized military of 200 years from now might look like. To help, think of what the mechanized military of 200 years ago looked like. Oh wait — there WASN’T one. In 200 years, technologies which could not be described in 1809 have come into existence. Imagining the technology of 200 years from now is pretty much akin to handing a pile of sand to Charles Babbage and saying “Here. Build your computer out of this. We do it, after all.”)

So, let’s put aside the idea that “primitive tech can beat high tech if your hearts are pure”. It just ain’t so.

Now let’s look at something else. Yup, Imperialist Invaders have indeed been driven off, or at least stymied or frustrated, by determined resistance by people who have access to decent personal weapons — perhaps the mortars and rocket launchers and assault rifles of the past war, cheap junk to the first world but still plenty deadly and only slightly behind the tech curve. However, this didn’t occur when someone rounded up all the Viet Cong/Mujaheddin/Whatever and pointed them at a massed column of tanks, artillery, and soldiers. It happened due to what used to be called “guerrilla warfare”, until someone noticed that term was French and we can’t call any actually successful military tactic by a French term, and so is now called “asymmetrical warfare”, which means, “While you are having sex with my sister the prostitute, I will sneak up behind you and slit your throat.” It also means “I will hide my weapons in religious buildings, hospitals, and marketplaces; I will disguise bombs inside children’s toys and teach my children to get you to go pick them up; I will attack only when you are asleep or alone or unprepared and then I will vanish into a crowd of seeming innocents so your only choice is to become a victim or a monster.” What it absolutely does not mean is “I will charge right at you, whooping war cries and exposing myself to you, while leaving my old, my women, and my children safely somewhere else so you know exactly who you can shoot and still retain some traces of humanity and conscience.” The process also takes years, sometimes decades, and “victory” comes not as a single triumphant moment but the inevitable slow degradation of enemy commitment and involvement until they “declare victory and leave”, letting you finally wipe out their puppet government, put in your own, and begin committing genocide against your people yourself instead of letting outsiders have all the fun.

But I guess it’s hard to put all that up on the screen. (Though “Charlie Wilson’s War” did a pretty good job, come to think of it. It’s called a “montage”, Mr. Cameron. Maybe you missed that class in film school.)

Of course, there have been times when the defenders of the homeland against imperialist aggression have, indeed, rode out on horse cavalry against tanks in open battle. It happened in Poland in 1938. Guess which side won?

Amusingly, while this trope is often found in movies which allow white people to wallow in white guilt while still making a white man the hero (sure, he turns against his own people (Dances with Wolves, Last Samurai, Avatar) but he’s the one who shows the savages and primitives how to win — without being LED by a White Man, they cannot DEFEAT the White Man. White Liberals get to have it both ways — they get to tear their shirts over the evils of capitalistimperialism, AND they get to still be the people in charge, the bringers of wisdom and guidance to the world. You can purge your guilt over crimes you didn’t commit and had no actual part in, and you get to be top dog and boink the hot Indian/Japanese/Smurf chick. Win/win!), the real origin is part of American myth and legend, namely, the myth of the American revolution, where the cunning, but outgunned, Revolutionaries defeated the armies of Imperial Britain by hiding behind walls and NOT wearing bright red uniforms. If we had had modern media back then, there would have been a movie about a British general who infiltrates the Americans, then eventually learns to sympathize with their cause (and falls in love with, I dunno, Paul Revere’s smokin’ hot daughter, who will wear a low-cut bodice or something), and he teaches them all to hide behind walls and not wear bright red uniforms, and then he’s made President of the United States by unanimous acclaim. You even see it poke up again in “Red Dawn” and the like, though at least in Red Dawn, IIRC, it was mostly guerrilla action and sabotage, not charging madly at Russian tanks waving a BB gun.

(I want to do a movie in which an Aztec somehow makes it to Elizabethan England, and while initially treated as a barbarian curiosity, his nobility, courage, and broad, well-muscled chest that glints in the sunlight eventually causes the English to respect him, and then he leads them against the Spanish Armada thanks to his knowledge of Aztec Warfare, and marries Queen Elizabeth and becomes King Xiticioalicxa I or something. Though to be really true to genre, we’d need to replace the Spanish Armada with the Aztec Armada.)

And To Start Off… Eco Friendly Wedding Rings

Monday, December 28th, 2009

Ah, the nice thing about life in the modern world is that there’s never a shortage of things to point at and laugh. Of course, sometimes, the thing you’re laughing at is sort of a shared joke. For example, the eco-friendly wedding ring. I can’t help but feel the people behind this are laughing up their sleeves (and all the way to the bank) at the people who would buy something like this and take it seriously. I mean… “voluntary carbon offset tax”??? Who thinks, “I want to buy some gold, but it has to socially responsible gold!”? Apparently, enough people to keep “GreenKaret” in business.

Environmentalism has really only been around for a century or two, but it has the possibility of becoming an even bigger scam, overall, than religion.

Of course, it tends to fill a lot of the same needs — “the environment” is an awful lot like “God”. It’s big, scary, random, incomprehensible, and is explained to you be an elite caste who demand that you trust them. You can perform any number of rituals to improve your standing with “the environment” but you’ll never see any concrete, undeniable, proof you’ve done so. Perhaps most importantly, you can judge other people based on how pure they are and if they’re doing all the right things in all the right ways. You get the superego high of being part of something “bigger than yourself” while still being able to indulge your id by hating, despising, and mocking all those who don’t share your faith or who aren’t as good as you.

Yeah, pretty much the same as religion.